Washington vs. Minnesota

Washington and Minnesota meet Sunday in a matchup between two teams desperate to stop long losing streaks — the Commanders have dropped seven straight, while the Vikings have lost four in a row. Washington gets a major boost with Jayden Daniels returning from his elbow injury, restoring a fully healthy group of playmakers around him. Minnesota, meanwhile, has dealt with offensive inconsistency all season and enters this matchup still searching for rhythm.

Washington’s run game has quietly been one of the league’s strengths, ranking among the top rushing attacks in the NFL, and that balance could stress a Minnesota defense that has given up yards in chunks during its recent skid. The Vikings have scored just 42 points across their last four games, while Washington has been in more competitive, higher-scoring contests, often undone by turnovers rather than an inability to move the ball.

Given the Commanders’ healthier roster, stronger ground game, and the recent struggles of Minnesota’s offense, Washington holds the matchup edge. With both defenses leaking yards and Washington’s offense getting back to full strength, scoring should pick up as well. The pick: Washington -1.5 and Over 43.5.

Cincinnati vs. Buffalo

Buffalo comes into this Week 14 matchup as the stronger team on paper — sitting around 8–4 straight up with a high-powered offense averaging over 28 points per game and a dominant rushing attack that ranks near the top of the league. Cincinnati is 4–8 SU this season but has shown flashes, including head-to-head success against Buffalo in recent meetings where the Bengals have won 6 of the last 8 and covered the spread repeatedly. These historical edges could keep this game closer than the public expects. (Sportsbook Review)

From a betting trend perspective, both teams have notable “under” leanings: the Under has hit in multiple recent Bills games, and Cincinnati has cashed unders in several outings when the number is above 50. Head-to-head matchups between these clubs have also tended to stay under, suggesting this slate might favor fewer points rather than a shootout. Conversely, Cincinnati has been strong ATS against Buffalo historically, even as the road underdog. (Prime Sportsbook)

Considering the Bills’ home advantage and overall efficiency, they’re still the projected winners — but not by a big margin in a game that could see slower drives and fewer explosive plays than expected. That aligns with a closer spread and a lower scoring outcome. Pick: Cincinnati +6 and Under 52.5.

Matchup Context & Trends
This AFC South showdown features two 8–4 teams tied atop the division, with Indianapolis earning a slight road favorite tag despite Jacksonville hosting the game. Both squads have similar ATS records (~7–4–1), showing they’ve held up reasonably well against the number. Historically, though, the Colts have a rough time in Jacksonville — they’re winless in their last nine trips there and the Jags have dominated at home in this head-to-head series, often covering in close games. Statistically, the Colts sport one of the league’s top offenses, averaging around 29.8 points per game, while Jacksonville’s scoring sits in the mid-20s but has shown momentum recently with three straight wins. (FanDuel)

Offensive & Defensive Matchups
Indianapolis ranks highly in offensive efficiency, leading the league in yards and points per play, and boasts a balanced attack that makes them dangerous in all phases. Meanwhile, Jacksonville has been solid defensively overall, particularly against the run, and benefits from home comfort. Both teams have been middle-of-the-pack in combined scoring this season, with about half of their games hitting the over, but recent trends in Jacksonville lean toward lower totals at home. Turnover margins, third-down efficiency, and red-zone performance also paint a picture of two evenly matched squads where neither side dominates cleanly. (theScore.com)

Given the Colts’ statistical edge in offensive firepower and metrics, the spread seems tight — but Jacksonville’s strong home history against Indianapolis, especially in covering the number, makes them live as an underdog here. Combined with trends toward under results in recent Jaguars home games and the generally modest combined scoring profiles, this one has a lower-scoring feel and a close finish. Pick: Jaguars +1.5 and Under 46.5.

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