🏈 Monday Night Football Betting Breakdown: Chargers vs. Eagles

This Monday night matchup features two 8-4 teams, but the momentum and injury reports heavily favor the home underdog Chargers. The Eagles are stumbling, having lost their last two games, including a concerning defensive outing where they allowed 281 rushing yards to the Bears. Crucially, Philadelphia will be without two All-Pro linemen: tackle Lane Johnson and defensive tackle Jalen Carter, the latter being a massive blow to their pass rush and run defense. While quarterback Justin Herbert of the Chargers is dealing with a fractured non-throwing hand, he is expected to play and has already shown he can manage the injury. The Eagles’ recent offensive struggles, ranking 21st in EPA per play since Week 10, coupled with the Chargers’ recent defensive surge (tied for 5th in EPA per play allowed), create a recipe for a tight game where the host should be competitive.

The betting market is showing notable signs that align with backing the home team. Despite nearly 75% of the betting tickets and handle being on the Eagles, the point spread has moved down from an opening of +2.5 to as low as +1.5, indicating significant “sharp” money is coming in on the Chargers. Furthermore, the Chargers boast solid home underdog stats under coach Jim Harbaugh, including a 5-1 straight-up record at home in games with a total between 35.5 and 42. With Philadelphia’s key absences on both lines and their recent struggles to find consistency, the home field advantage and positive line movement make the Chargers an appealing play to cover the spread.

For the over/under, set at 41.5, there are arguments for both sides, but recent trends and specific defensive injuries suggest the Over is the stronger play. The Chargers have gone Over the total in five of their last seven games. The absence of Eagles DT Jalen Carter creates a significant weakness for the Chargers’ offensive coordinator Greg Roman to exploit with the running game, which could lead to sustained drives and scoring opportunities. While the Eagles’ offense has been inconsistent, Jalen Hurts could be pushed to run more, which tends to increase offensive efficiency. If the Chargers can establish the run and Herbert hits a few big plays against a beatable Eagles secondary, the game script could lead to just enough points to hit the Over.

The Pick: Chargers +2.5 and Over 41.5