Hola mis amigos! Here’s my Thursday Night Football pick.

Tampa Bay enters this NFC South clash as the slight favorite at home, with the market pricing them around Buccaneers -4.5 to -5.5 on the spread and a total near 44.5 points early in the week. Baker Mayfield has been the steadier signal-caller this season (20 TDs to 6 INTs), compared with Kirk Cousins’ limited production for Atlanta, which has been hampered by injuries and offensive inconsistency. Tampa Bay’s offense has averaged about 23 points per game, while the Falcons are near 19.4 PPG, setting up a battle where home-field edge and offensive efficiency could be decisive.

Trend-wise, both teams have been middling against the spread (5–8 ATS) on the season, but the Buccaneers haven’t covered in their last five games and are just 1–5 ATS at home this year, making the spread itchy for some bettors. The Falcons have historically covered well as underdogs and are 4–2 ATS as an underdog this season, including head-to-head success versus Tampa Bay. Meanwhile, unders have shown up often in comparable spots — Atlanta’s recent Thursday games and Tampa Bay’s late-season contests both lean toward lower scoring results, particularly when offensive injuries or inefficiencies are in play. (ClutchPoints)

Despite Tampa Bay’s recent ATS struggles and Atlanta’s “spoiler” mindset, the Buccaneers won the earlier meeting this season (23–20) and have the roster motivation to control phases in a divisional battle where every possession counts. Given the defensive chops and trend toward conservative scoring in prime-time divisional games, this matchup projects as a close, lower-scoring tilt with Tampa Bay prevailing. Pick: Tampa Bay -5.5 and Under 43.5.

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